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5/4/2010 NTRI 21 CALLS 20% 20%
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5/5/2010 AMMD 17.50 CALLS 20% 300%
5/5/2010 AMMD 20 CALLS 20% 20%
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RECAP FOR THE WEEK OF: May 3, 2010

Looking like our May 5th turning point is already underway.

The oil spill in the gulf will send unemployment numbers higher. Everyone know that in order for the market rally to continue, we need to see better job numbers. Looks like the job numbers will be moving in the opposite direction. This shock to the economy could easily lead to a massive sell-off in the markets.

On the monthly OEX chart we have a bearish candle reversal near a key Fibonacci 61.8% retracement from the all-time high of 14,198 on October 11, 2007. The OEX is close to a 5/20 EMA crossover. Watch for a breakout through the bottom of the current channel pattern.

Expect sharp price moves in precious metals, higher prices in oil and U.S. Treasuries and a stronger dollar.

Monday and Tuesday should see some big price moves.

Follow-up

We certainly saw the markets change direction. The big drop on Thursday happend on the exact day of the Lunar reversal.

Monday and Tuesday were both big movers (100+ points)

Gold started the week at 1185, fell to 1165, then finished the week at 1203. Silver dropped from 18.75, fell to 16.60, but did not recover as Gold.

^DJI RESULTS
DATE OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE CHG CHG % HIGH
CHG
HIGH
CHG %
LOW
CHG
LOW
CHG %
   
05/03/10 11009.60 11203.37 11004.15 11151.83 143.22 1.30% 194.76 1.77% -4.46 -0.04%
05/04/10 11149.48 11149.48 10843.71 10926.77 -225.06 -2.02% -2.35 -0.02% -308.12 -2.76%
05/05/10 10918.40 10947.00 10867.00 10868.12 -58.65 -0.54% 20.23 0.19% -59.77 -0.55%
05/06/10 10862.22 10925.86 9787.17 10520.32 -347.80 -3.20% 57.74 0.53% -1080.95 -9.95%
05/07/10 10519.42 10622.27 10221.50 10380.43 -139.89 -1.33% 101.95 0.97% -298.82 -2.84%

 


FORECAST FOR THE WEEK OF: May 10, 2010

Expect to see lots of sharp price move over the next couple of week. We will not see new highs in the ^DJI for sometime.

 


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RECENT SINGLE DAY BIG MOVER PREDICTION RESULTS

WEEK OF
PREDICTED
ACTUAL
NOTE
05/04 05/04
05/04  
05/11 05/11
 
05/13 11th was 2nd
05/18 05/18
05/18  
05/18 5/21 2nd
5/21 was 2nd  
05/25 05/26 or 05/27
05/26 27th was 2nd
06/01 06/01
06/01  
06/08
06/11 or 06/12
06/11
12th was 2nd
06/15 06/15 06/15  
06/22 06/22 06/22  
06/29 06/29   07/02 06/29 was 2nd
07/06 07/06  1 07/07 Early by one
07/20 07/20   07/23 07/20 was 2nd
07/27 07/29  1 07/30 Early by one
08/10 08/10   08/12 Missed
08/17 08/17 08/17  
08/24 08/26  1 08/27 Early by one
08/31 09/01 09/01  
09/07 09/10 09/10  
09/14 09/17 1 09/16 Late by one
09/21 09/23 09/23  
09/28 10/01 10/01  
10/05 10/05 1 10/06 Early by one
10/26 10/26 or 10/29 1 10/30 Early by one
11/09 11/10 1 11/09 Late by one
11/16 11/16 11/16  
11/30 12/02 1 12/01 Late by one
12/07 12/11 12/08 Way off! :-(
12/14 12/17 12/17 -132.86
01/04 01/07 2 01/04 2nd biggest move
01/11 01/14 or 01/15 01/15  
01/18 01/19 01/22  
01/25 01/28 01/28  
02/08 02/12 02/09 Way off! :-(
02/22 02/24 02/25 Off by 1
03/08 03/11/10 03/11/10
03/22 03/23 03/23/10 +102.94 (0.95%)
04/05 04/05 04/07/10
04/26 04/28 04/27/10 Off by 1

RECENT SINGLE DAY UP/DOWN INDICATOR RESULTS

DATE
PREDICTED
RESULT
^DJI
12/17/10 UP UP +20
01/04/10 UP UP +155
02/02/10 UP UP +111
02/12/10 DOWN DOWN +40.43
03/17/10 UP UP +47.69
03/30/10 DOWN DOWN -58.65
03/31/10 DOWN DOWN -105.20
04/08/10 DOWN UP +29
04/15/10 UP UP +21
04/27/10 UP DOWN -213
04/30/10 DOWN DOWN -158

 

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FINANCIAL EVENTS THIS COMING WEEK

** Reversal Indicator

Monday, 10-May-2010

11:00 AM 4-Week Bill Announcement
11:30 AM 3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM 6-Month Bill Auction
01:00 PM Narayana Kocherlakota Speaks

Tuesday, 11-May-2010

07:45 AM ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
08:55 AM Redbook
10:00 AM Wholesale Trade
10:15 AM Eric Rosengren Speaks
11:30 AM 4-Week Bill Auction
01:00 PM 3-Yr Note Auction
01:15 PM Dennis Lockhart Speaks

Wednesday, 12-May-2010

07:00 AM MBA Purchase Applications
08:30 AM International Trade
10:30 AM EIA Petroleum Status Report
01:00 PM 10-Yr Note Auction
02:00 PM Treasury Budget

Thursday, 13-May-2010

08:30 AM Jobless Claims
08:30 AM Import and Export Prices
10:30 AM EIA Natural Gas Report
11:00 AM 3-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM 6-Month Bill Announcement
12:00 PM Narayana Kocherlakota Speaks
01:00 PM 30-Yr Bond Auction
04:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
04:30 PM Money Supply

Friday, 14-May-2010

08:30 AM Retail Sales
09:15 AM Industrial Production
09:55 AM Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM Business Inventories

Source: MyPivots

 

 

 
 

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--Rob

The Option Signal Service

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