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Wall Street Forecaster

Wall Street Forecaster Blog/

Some highlights from the past week's blog:

Chart with recent OSS reversal dates

 


U.S. Debt Clock http://www.usdebtclock.org/ tick....tick....tick......tick.....BOOM!

How much further in debt are U.S. Tax Payers?


RECAP FOR THE WEEK OF: Aug 2, 2010

This week is crammed with so much stuff, about all I can say is it looks like a wild ride. There is so much energy present in the indicators that this week should see something unusual like wide swings or a big move in one direstion. Monday's action will be the key to the rest of the week. Subscribers will be updated with intra-week alerts. Should be some good trading opportunities here, but we will need to be quick to take advantage of them.

Wendesday looks like the big mover this week.

First trading day of the month is almost always UP. That would be Monday this week.

Negativity will remain in the markets till Aug 13rd, so I would expect this week will see a move to the downside, or lose any big gains in the first part of the week.

We are now one week into the once-in-a-life-time Cardinal Climax that runs from July 21-August 21.

Watch the divergence on the Stochastic Oscillator.

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Drip after drip of deflation data

(Ambrose Evans-Pritchard) Today’s release on manufacturing activity by the Richmond Fed is pretty ghastly, as you would expect given that the effects of fiscal stimulus are now wearing off at accelerating pace – before the happy handover to the private sector is safely consummated – and given that the structural East-West imbalances that lay behind the global crisis are getting worse again. The expectations index for the US 5th District is crumbling:

  July June May
Shipments 30 40 55
Volume of New Orders 24 38 50
Capacity Utilization 29 35 45
Wages 16 25 34

This follows yesterday’s horrendous fall in the Texas business activity index from the Dallas Fed, which fell from -4 in June to -21 in July. “Thirty-one percent of firms reported a worsening of activity, up from 22 percent in June,” said the bank.

Why isn’t our media reporting this???

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Oh, just one more thing: FDIC announcing that it closed four more banks, bringing the total USA bank closures for the year now to 100. We are well ahead of last year’s monstrous 140 bank closures.

Then there is this I found on the internet, forget where: U.S. audit found that the Pentagon can’t account for ($8.7 billion) of the $9.1 billion in Iraq construction money… there is little to show for the massive funds pumped into their cash-starved, war-ravaged nation.” 95% missing?

 

Follow-up -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   Monday was up as predicted. First trading day of the month.

  "Negativity will remain in the markets till Aug 13rd, so I would expect this week will see a move to the downside, or lose any big gains in the first part of the week." The DJI was negative after the big gain on Monday that closed at 10674. Fridays close was 10653.56, with an intraday low of 10491.37

Monday was the big mover, not Wednesday.

TRADING ACTION:

Subscribers were told to buy Puts Wednesday when a predicted 10:10 reversal took place. Markets lost points on Thursday and Friday, but came back at the close both days. Trade is still open.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

^DJI RESULTS
DATE OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE CHG CHG % HIGH
CHG
HIGH
CHG %
LOW
CHG
LOW
CHG %
   
08/02/10 10468.82 10715.21 10468.82 10674.38 208.44 1.99% 249.27 2.38% 2.88 0.03%
08/03/10 10673.92 10714.19 10564.18 10636.38 -38.00 -0.36% 39.81 0.37% -110.20 -1.03%
08/04/10 10630.20 10738.48 10583.10 10680.43 44.05 0.41% 102.10 0.96% -53.28 -0.50%
08/05/10 10679.67 10712.37 10571.60 10674.98 -5.45 -0.05% 31.94 0.30% -108.83 -1.02%
08/06/10 10668.55 10688.08 10491.37 10653.56 -21.42 -0.20% 13.10 0.12% -183.61 -1.72%

FORECAST FOR THE WEEK OF: Aug 9, 2010

Last week, I wrote: This week is crammed with so much stuff..... This week, I write: This week is so full of reversal signals, I am again tightening the seat belt.

The OSS reversal on Monday worked out nicely with a +200 point move. Another OSS reversal was on Thursday, but it is hard to say if Friday's intraday loss of -183 points was the full extent of the reversal, or if there is more to come this week.

UPDATE: For the record, we did not see anything around the end of July that would indicate the "peek into the future" I was hoping for. But the astrological Cardinal Climax we are going through is big, and stretched out over time. I am confident when we look back at 2010, we will see that it did indeed have a big effect on the markets. While we have not seen anything unusual in the markets, the weather has been making the headlines:

If we move down into the 13th, we should see a rally for the next two weeks. Take a look at the chart below, and you'll see the markets are in an upward wedge that should turn down any time. Arrows indicate OSS reversals usually calculated three days in advance. The DJI hit its short-term high this last week, and so did many markets around the world. Looks like a tipping point to me.

The Cardinal Climax is not just a financial event, it is just bad for everything, and if we do see the markets crash over the next few months, the cause may not be financial this time. Let's look at some of the unusual events happing in the world right now:

  • Rains in Asia have displaced over a million people.
  • Heat wave in Europe.
  • Fires in Russia raise air quality in Moscow over 6 times the safe limits.
  • Russia bans export of grains. Grain prices soar!
  • Treasuries have risen to their highest levels since the Panic of 2008

I believe more events like these are ahead this month.

The astrological events this month have been called a once-in-a-lifetime event, and they truely are. I don't usually speak much of astrological indicators other than to mention a reversal may be come, and even then, I do not get into the astro-techie types, but this month I think it is worth it.

Astrology 101

  1. Aspects are the degrees of separation with respect to longitude
  2. Major aspects are:
    1. Conjunction (0º) -- Negative or Positive depending on the planets involved
    2. Squares (90º) -- Negative
    3. Trines (120º) -- Positive
    4. Oppositions (180º) -- Negative
  3. When three or more planets form aspects to each other as on the 1st and 2nd with Jupiter, Mars and Pluto, this combination of aspects is believed to deliver a double or triple punch.
  4. Aspects with respect to Latitude (Declination: the up and down position of a planet) are Parallel (both planets are at the same Latitude) and Contraparallel (both planets are at the same degree of Latitude but one is South and the other is North.
  5. Retrograde is the term used to explain a planet that starts moving backwards. Well, it doesn't really, but from our view point on the Earth, that is the way it works. It is said that when Mercury goes retrograde, communications get screwed-up, and things started seldom end with good results. See the 20th.

OK. class begins. Look at the table below. Have this number of major aspects in one month is highly unusual. Of all the aspects, only one could be considered Positive (Venus Conjunct Mars on the 20th). Now, get out your pencils and see how many times there are three or more planets involved in a combination of aspects to each other. Once in awhile you might find ONE of these in a month. Start connecting the dots--there is a surprise here.

 

The (*) marks days when the number of aspects with respect to Latitude are really unusually high. I do not remember see anything like this.

DATE

ASTRO EVENTS

08/01/10 Jupiter Square Pluto
08/02/10 Mars Oppose Jupiter, Mars Square Pluto
08/03/10  
08/04/10  
08/05/10  
08/06/10  
08/07/10 Venus Oppose Uranus, Venus Parrallel Uranus
08/08/10 Venus Conjunct Saturn
08/09/10 Venus square Pluto, Venus Oppose Jupiter
08/10/10  
08/11/10  
08/12/10 (*)
08/13/10  
08/14/10  
08/15/10  
08/16/10 Jupiter Oppose Saturn
08/17/10  
08/18/10  
08/19/10  
08/20/10 Sun Oppose Neptune, Venus Conjunct Mars, Mercury retrograde
08/21/10 Saturn Square Pluto
08/22/10  
08/23/10  
08/24/10  
08/25/10  
08/26/10 (*)
08/27/10  
08/28/10  
08/29/10  
08/30/10  
08/31/10  

What we are looking at this month is as close to a full-blown cosmic combinatorics catastrophe you will see in your life-time.

 

Any changing curcumstances will be noted in the Wall Street Forecaster Blog/


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FINANCIAL EVENTS THIS COMING WEEK

Monday, 09-August-2010

11:00 AM 4-Week Bill Announcement
11:30 AM 3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM 6-Month Bill Auction

Tuesday, 10-August-2010

07:30 AM NFIB SBO Index
07:45 AM ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
08:30 AM Productivity and Costs
08:55 AM Redbook
10:00 AM Wholesale Trade
11:30 AM 4-Week Bill Auction
01:00 PM 3-Yr Note Auction
02:15 PM FOMC Meeting Announcement

Wednesday, 11-August-2010

07:00 AM MBA Purchase Applications
08:30 AM International Trade
10:30 AM EIA Petroleum Status Report
01:00 PM 10-Yr Note Auction
02:00 PM Treasury Budget

Thursday, 12-August-2010

08:30 AM Jobless Claims
08:30 AM Import and Export Prices
10:30 AM EIA Natural Gas Report
11:00 AM 3-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM 6-Month Bill Announcement
01:00 PM 30-Yr Bond Auction
04:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
04:30 PM Money Supply

Friday, 13-August-2010

08:30 AM Consumer Price Index
08:30 AM Retail Sales
09:55 AM Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM Business Inventories

Source: MyPivots

 

 
 

Please contact me with any questions/comments.

--Rob

The Option Signal Service

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