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Some highlights from the past week's blog:

The Hindenburg Omen Has Arrived

Easily the most feared technical pattern in all of chartism (for the bullishly inclined) is the dreaded Hindenburg Omen.

Commodities and unusual weather


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RECAP FOR THE WEEK OF: Aug 9, 2010

Last week, I wrote: This week is crammed with so much stuff..... This week, I write: This week is so full of reversal signals, I am again tightening the seat belt.

The OSS reversal on Monday worked out nicely with a +200 point move. Another OSS reversal was on Thursday, but it is hard to say if Friday's intraday loss of -183 points was the full extent of the reversal, or if there is more to come this week.

UPDATE: For the record, we did not see anything around the end of July that would indicate the "peek into the future" I was hoping for. But the astrological Cardinal Climax we are going through is big, and stretched out over time. I am confident when we look back at 2010, we will see that it did indeed have a big effect on the markets. While we have not seen anything unusual in the markets, the weather has been making the headlines:

If we move down into the 13th, we should see a rally for the next two weeks. Take a look at the chart below, and you'll see the markets are in an upward wedge that should turn down any time. Arrows indicate OSS reversals usually calculated three days in advance. The DJI hit its short-term high this last week, and so did many markets around the world. Looks like a tipping point to me.

The Cardinal Climax is not just a financial event, it is just bad for everything, and if we do see the markets crash over the next few months, the cause may not be financial this time. Let's look at some of the unusual events happing in the world right now:

  • Rains in Asia have displaced over a million people.
  • Heat wave in Europe.
  • Fires in Russia raise air quality in Moscow over 6 times the safe limits.
  • Russia bans export of grains. Grain prices soar!
  • Treasuries have risen to their highest levels since the Panic of 2008

I believe more events like these are ahead this month.

The astrological events this month have been called a once-in-a-lifetime event, and they truely are. I don't usually speak much of astrological indicators other than to mention a reversal may be come, and even then, I do not get into the astro-techie types, but this month I think it is worth it.

Astrology 101

  1. Aspects are the degrees of separation with respect to longitude
  2. Major aspects are:
    1. Conjunction (0º) -- Negative or Positive depending on the planets involved
    2. Squares (90º) -- Negative
    3. Trines (120º) -- Positive
    4. Oppositions (180º) -- Negative
  3. When three or more planets form aspects to each other as on the 1st and 2nd with Jupiter, Mars and Pluto, this combination of aspects is believed to deliver a double or triple punch.
  4. Aspects with respect to Latitude (Declination: the up and down position of a planet) are Parallel (both planets are at the same Latitude) and Contraparallel (both planets are at the same degree of Latitude but one is South and the other is North.
  5. Retrograde is the term used to explain a planet that starts moving backwards. Well, it doesn't really, but from our view point on the Earth, that is the way it works. It is said that when Mercury goes retrograde, communications get screwed-up, and things started seldom end with good results. See the 20th.

OK. class begins. Look at the table below. Have this number of major aspects in one month is highly unusual. Of all the aspects, only one could be considered Positive (Venus Conjunct Mars on the 20th). Now, get out your pencils and see how many times there are three or more planets involved in a combination of aspects to each other. Once in awhile you might find ONE of these in a month. Start connecting the dots--there is a surprise here.

The (*) marks days when the number of aspects with respect to Latitude are really unusually high. I do not remember see anything like this.

DATE

ASTRO EVENTS

08/01/10 Jupiter Square Pluto
08/02/10 Mars Oppose Jupiter, Mars Square Pluto
08/03/10  
08/04/10  
08/05/10  
08/06/10  
08/07/10 Venus Oppose Uranus, Venus Parrallel Uranus
08/08/10 Venus Conjunct Saturn
08/09/10 Venus square Pluto, Venus Oppose Jupiter
08/10/10  
08/11/10  
08/12/10 (*)
08/13/10  
08/14/10  
08/15/10  
08/16/10 Jupiter Oppose Saturn
08/17/10  
08/18/10  
08/19/10  
08/20/10 Sun Oppose Neptune, Venus Conjunct Mars, Mercury retrograde
08/21/10 Saturn Square Pluto
08/22/10  
08/23/10  
08/24/10  
08/25/10  
08/26/10 (*)
08/27/10  
08/28/10  
08/29/10  
08/30/10  
08/31/10  

What we are looking at this month is as close to a full-blown cosmic combinatorics catastrophe you will see in your life-time.

 

Follow-up -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   We were expecting a breakout to the downside from the upward wedge, and we got it.

TRADING RESULTS

OEX AUG10 475 PUT -- We entered this trade on 8/5 @ $1.25, and hung on to it as long as the markets looked like a downtrend was coming. By 8/9, the price has fallen by 50%, but the market has still not made a significant move, and was still showing signs of moving lower. On 8/12, we finally got our move lower, and the bid price reached a high of $3.00 (+140%).

OEX AUG10 465 PUT -- On 8/10 subscribers where told to buy Puts near the close on 8/11 in anticipation of a big move down on Thursday or Friday. With the surprise move on Wednesday, subscribers were told to buy Puts at their discretion. I record the price @ $1.10 15 minutes after the Alert went out. It opened at $1.70 (+55%), then fell the rest of the day. Bid price hit a low of $0.60 later in the day.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

^DJI RESULTS
DATE OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE CHG CHG % HIGH
CHG
HIGH
CHG %
LOW
CHG
LOW
CHG %
   
08/09/10 10654.62 10755.66 10618.26 10698.75 45.19 0.42% 102.10 0.96% -35.30 -0.33%
08/10/10 10696.63 10717.21 10522.63 10644.25 -54.50 -0.51% 18.46 0.17% -176.12 -1.65%
08/11/10 10631.82 10631.82 10339.63 10378.83 -265.42 -2.49% -12.43 -0.12% -304.62 -2.86%
08/12/10 10361.58 10388.37 10222.85 10319.95 -58.88 -0.57% 9.54 0.09% -155.98 -1.50%
08/13/10 10320.33 10381.86 10254.18 10303.15 -16.80 -0.16% 61.91 0.60% -65.77 -0.64%

FORECAST FOR THE WEEK OF: AUG 16, 2010

I have mentioned the August 11-13 period as a reversal point in previous newsletters. Last week I stated: "If we move down into the 13th, we should see a rally for the next two weeks." We did move down to a short-term low last week, so the next two weeks should be higher. Monday could see the markets go even lower before we turn up.

Day of the Month Indicator is showing a move higher from Monday through Wednesday, then down for the rest of the week.

Of interest this last week was the use of the word "depression" by the talking heads on CNBC. Also, a segment on how the chart similarities between today's market and that of Great Depression is almost a carbon copy. Scary.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Raymond Merriman sees trouble ahead:

Equities were not the only financial markets to make noteworthy moves last week. The most important development was in the U.S. Treasury markets, which blasted upwards following the Fed’s decision to resume purchase of these very long-term debt obligations of the U.S. Government. We said there could be a bubble, and if it happened in Treasures, it would result in “Double Bubble Trouble.” Indeed, that seems to be happening now as Treasuries approach the levels present in the height of the 2008 Panic. The Fed’s decision makes one wonder if things are progressing so badly that there is real danger of another economic and market collapse. Why would they take Treasuries back to the level of the 2008 crisis days if the economy was improving and stabilizing as the White House and its “Economic Dream Team” continues to insist? Somebody is not telling the whole story to the American people and the world. Don’t take my word for it. Take the word of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank report issued last week, stating that “… the probability that the U.S. economy will slip back into recession over the next two years is higher than that of economic expansion.” (CNBC.com, August 10).

Written by Raymond Merriman
Source: http://www.mmacycles.com/weekly-preview/mma-comments-for-the-week/mma-comments-for-the-week-beginning-august-16,-2010/

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Follow up of the Hindenburg Omen
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/couple-pointers-thestreetcom-blogging-etiquette

US Dollar breaks out of bullish channel and bullish wedge:

 

 

Any changing curcumstances will be noted in the Wall Street Forecaster Blog/


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FINANCIAL EVENTS THIS COMING WEEK

Monday, 16-August-2010

08:30 AM Empire State Mfg Survey
09:00 AM Treasury International Capital
10:00 AM Housing Market Index
11:00 AM 4-Week Bill Announcement
11:30 AM 3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM 6-Month Bill Auction
Moon enters 4th quarter

Tuesday, 17-August-2010

06:00 AM E-Commerce Retail Sales
07:45 AM ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
08:30 AM Housing Starts
08:30 AM Producer Price Index
08:55 AM Redbook
09:15 AM Industrial Production
11:30 AM 4-Week Bill Auction
12:30 PM Narayana Kocherlakota Speaks

Wednesday, 18-August-2010

07:00 AM MBA Purchase Applications
10:30 AM EIA Petroleum Status Report

Thursday, 19-August-2010

08:30 AM Jobless Claims
10:00 AM Leading Indicators
10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed Survey
10:30 AM EIA Natural Gas Report
11:00 AM 3-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM 6-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM 52-Week Bill Announcement
11:00 AM 2-Yr Note Announcement
11:00 AM 5-Yr Note Announcement
11:00 AM 7-Yr Note Announcement
11:00 AM 30-Yr TIPS Announcement
11:30 AM James Bullard Speaks
01:00 PM Charles Evans Speaks
04:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
04:30 PM Money Supply

Friday, 20-August-2010

08:00 AM No Announcements Today

Source: MyPivots

 

 
 

Please contact me with any questions/comments.

--Rob

The Option Signal Service

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