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Some highlights from the past week's blog:

Could the 11,000-Point Dow Make Us All Miserable?

How Cartoons Differ in Bull and Bear Markets

How to Spot a Dead Cat Bounce



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RECAP FOR THE WEEK OF: AUG 23, 2010

I am expecting a drop lower for the markets in the first part of the week.

Using the low in July and the high in August, the 61.8% retracement levels are:
DJI -- 10,050
SPX -- 1058
OEX -- 480

Expect a short-time bounce off these levels, but remember the trend is down from now until Nov.

If you are looking to short some stocks. LNC, WFC, and BBY have made 52-week lows, and all 3 look like they are breaking to the downside of a Head-and-Shoulders.

Mercury went retrograde on Friday. Last time it went retrograde (4/11-5/11) we saw the Deepwater Horizon accident of 4/20 and the Flash Crash on 5/6. Should be interesting.

Time to take another look at the metals?
Big Autumn Silver Rally Ahead

Fear and Uncertainty Should Keep Gold Firm Next Week

Indian Demand for Gold during Festival Season Expected to Improve
Personally, I increased my holding in Silver last week. Hoping to see a good profit by the end of the year.

FOLLOW UP:
The 61.8% retracement levels held this week.
Silver's low this week was 1773; Firday it hit 1934.
Nothing disasterous from Mercury retrograde, yet.

 

     
OSS INDICATORS SERVICE for the OEX week beginning 08/23/10
DATE
R
V
T
CHG
CHG%
HIGH
HIGH%
LOW
LOW%

Negative and volatile in the beginning of the week, then positive

08/23/10
 
2
-
-1.50
-0.31
4.57
0.94
-1.66
-0.34
08/24/10
2
-
-6.92
-1.43
1.92
-0.40
-8.87
-1.83
08/25/10
A
 
(+)
1.23
0.26
3.13
0.66
-5.02
-1.05
08/26/10
 
1
+
-3.90
-0.81
2.28
0.48
-4.64
-0.97
08/27/10
 
1
+
7.18
1.51
7.51
1.58
-3.05
-0.64

FOLLOW UP:
Negative in the beginning of the week
Positive in the latter part of the week
Wednesday was positive
Biggest move of the week was up.
Friday was the big mover, not Monday or Tuesday

 

     

FORECAST FOR THE WEEK OF: AUG 30, 2010

Most likely down the first part of the week. Biggest move this week should be to the down side.

I've notice the calls for a double dip recession have greatly increased.

Even with Friday's reversal up, the markets have not made a clear breakout from the short term bearish channel, formed in the August trading month, but it could happen this week. Personally, I don't think it will before the markets give back some ground.

A couple of weeks back, I said it was time to be looking at the metals. Silver's low this week was 1773; Firday it hit 1934. I continue to expect higher prices. Of note: Australian gold production in the June quarter rose to its highest level in six and a half years.

Any changing curcumstances will be noted in the Wall Street Forecaster Blog/


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FINANCIAL EVENTS THIS COMING WEEK

Monday, 30-August-2010

08:30 AM Personal Income and Outlays
11:00 AM 4-Week Bill Announcement
11:00 AM 10-Yr TIPS Announcement
11:30 AM 3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM 6-Month Bill Auction

Tuesday, 31-August-2010

07:45 AM ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
08:55 AM Redbook
09:00 AM S&P Case-Shiller HPI
09:45 AM Chicago PMI
10:00 AM Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM State Street Investor Confidence Index
11:30 AM 4-Week Bill Auction
02:00 PM FOMC Minutes
03:00 PM Farm Prices

Wednesday, 01-September-2010

07:00 AM MBA Purchase Applications
07:30 AM Challenger Job-Cut Report
08:15 AM ADP Employment Report
10:00 AM ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM Construction Spending
10:30 AM EIA Petroleum Status Report
Moon enters 4th quarter

Thursday, 02-September-2010

06:00 AM Monster Employment Index
08:30 AM Jobless Claims
08:30 AM Productivity and Costs
10:00 AM Factory Orders
10:00 AM Pending Home Sales Index
10:30 AM EIA Natural Gas Report
11:00 AM 3-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM 6-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM 3-Yr Note Announcement
11:00 AM 10-Yr Note Announcement
11:00 AM 30-Yr Bond Announcement
01:00 PM 10-Yr TIPS Auction
04:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
04:30 PM Money Supply

Friday, 03-September-2010

08:30 AM Employment Situation
10:00 AM Dennis Lockhart Speaks
10:00 AM ISM Non-Mfg Index

Source: MyPivots

 

 

Please contact me with any questions/comments.

--Rob

The Option Signal Service

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